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Regional Transportation Authority

Key Indicator Report

For The Month Of May, 1994

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1994

May

Regional Transportation Authority

Key Indicator Report

For The Month Of May, 1994

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May

5556 022 39S 745

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Regional Highlights.

Sales Tax.

RTA Financial Results.

3-4

Ridership 5-6

CTA Performance.

7-8

Metra Performance 9-10

Pace Performance 11-12

Regional Highlights

Highlights:

Actual sales tax rev- enues for April de- creased 2.9% from the March level, this page and page 2

Economic growth is still strong without caus- ing much pncing pres- sure, this page

Ridership was mixed in May. CTA and Pace showed ridership de- creases while Metra had an increase, this page and pages 5-6

The combined operat- ing deficits of the Ser- vice Boards were unfa- vorable to budget by $5.9 million, this page and pages 7-12

The regional recovery ratio was 49.3% and 0.9 points lower than bud- get, this page and pages 3-4

Overview

Actual sales tax for Apnl decreased 2.9% from the level in March. This was the first drop in sales tax this year. Through AphI, sales tax is $2.9 million higherthan budget and $13.7 million higher than last year. If sales tax continues at the current level, it will slightly exceed budget for 1994.

The Commerce Depanment's Index of Leading Indicators held steady in May for a second month in a row. The index is a key government indicator of future economic vigor. The consumer pnce index rose a modest 0.3%) in June. A one time blip in airline fares and higher prices on domestic cars contributed to the increase. Producer prices, which are a measure of wholesale prices, were unchanged in June after dropping 0.1% in May. Overall, inflation pressures remained minimal at the wholesale level. Job creation showed a surge in June. The economy continues to grow at a strong pace with 379,000 jobs added in June which follows 252.000 additional )Obs in May. The unemployment rate remained steady at 6% of the work force.

The CTA's system ndership in May decreased 1 .3% from April's level. CTA ridership has been neariy level since the poor results in January. Ridership at Metra increased 1 .6% in May and is at its highest point in several years. Pace ridership decreased 0.4% in May following a 2.9% decrease in April.

On a year-to-date, combined basis. Service Board revenues were $2.6 million unfavorable to budget through May. This unfavorable variance was primarily attributable to the CTA, where expenses were also unfavorable to budget. Metra and Pace were favorable to budget for both revenues and expenses. As a result, all three Service Boards reported operating deficits which were $5.9 million unfavorable to budget.

The region's recovery ratio through May was 49.3%. This was 0.9 points unfavorable to budget and compared to last year.

fie

Sales Tax|

Sales Tax Versus Budget and Prior Year

(in millions)

April

Actual Vs Budget S40.6 S0.4

Apnl Year-to-Date

Actual Vs Budget Vs Prior Year

S152.0 $2.9 S13.7

RTA Sales Tax Monthly Levels (in millions)

Budget

I I! I II I 1 I II I 1 II I II I I II I I

JFMAMJJASONOJ FMAMJJASOND 93 94

RTA Sales Tax Levels Percent Change From Previous Month

M J J 1993

The RTA actual deseasonalized sales tax level for April, 1 994 was down 2.9% from fvlarch. This was the first monthly drop in sales tax for 1994.

After four months of 1994, actual sales tax results were $2.9 million higher than budget and $13.7 million higher than the same penod last year.

If sales tax remains at April's level for the remainder of the year, then we will slightly exceed budget.

RTA Financial Results

Monthly Results

Regional Transportation Authority

May 1994

(Dollars in Millions)

Revenue

Operations Funding Capital/Debt Funding Change to Fund Balance Regional Recovery Ratio

MEMO: Funding of Service Board Operations

Service Board Baseline Operations: Revenues Expenses Deficits

Positive Budget Variance

Less: Funded by Loan

Less: Contributed by Service Boards

RTA Funding of Service Board Operations

May	Favorable/fUnfai	i/orable)To:
1994	Budget	1993
$49.3	$0.5	$1.0
49.6	0.3	2.7
2.3	(0,1)	0.2
($2.6)	$0.7	$3.9
51.3%	0.4 pts.	0.3 pts.

$50.0	($0.2)	$0.8
98.5	0.4	(1.9)
$48.5	$0.2	($1.1)
02	(0.2)	4.0
0.0	0.0	0.0
0.0	0,0	(0,3)

$48.7

$0.0

$2.6

RTA revenues for fvlay include a sales tax forecast and were $0.5 million favorable to budget and $1.0 million favorable when compared to last year. Sales tax was $0.4 million favorable to budget while ail other variances were neariy offsetting. Operations funding for May was $0.3 million favorable to budget due to lower Agency expenses and $2.7 million favorable compared to last year primarily because of lower Service Board funding. Capital and debt sen/ice funding for May was $0.1 million unfavorable to budget primarily due to higher capital expenditures. Service Board revenues and expenses in May were $0.2 million unfavorable and $0.4 million favorable to budget, respectively. As a result, the combined Service Board deficit was $0.2 million favorable.

RTA revenues through May were $2.6 million favorable to budget. This is primarily due to a $3.3 million favorable variance in sales tax that is partially offset by an unfavorable variance of $0.9 million in RTA interest income and grants. Revenues were $14.1 million favorable compared to last year. A favorable variance totaling $17.6 million in sales tax. FTA operating grants, and RTF was partially offset by an unfavorable vanance of $3.5 million in sales tax for capital and RTA investment income and grants. RTA interest income and grants were unfavorable to both budget and compared to last year due to lower cash balances.

Operations funding was $0.9 million favorable to budget through May because of below budget spending at the RTA. Compared to 1993, operations funding was $7.7 million favorable. The temporary closure of the Green Line and other CTA actions have lowered RTA funding of Service Board operations compared to the previous year.

RTA Financial Results

Full Year Results Regional Transportation Authority Five Months Ending May 31, 1994

(Dollars in Millions)

	YTD 1994	Favorable/rUn	favorable)To:
	Budget $3.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 (0.9) $2.6	1993
Sales Tax Less: Sales Tax For Capital Public Transportation Fund FTA Operating RTA Interest & Other Grants Total Revenue	$194.3 (6.0) 50.7 49.5 1.1 $289.6	$15.0 (1.8) 2.5 0.1 (1,7), $14.1
RTA Funding of Service Board Operations RTA Agency Expenses New Initiatives Total Operations Funding	$244.6 4.5 0,0 $249.1	$0.0 0.9 0,0 $0.9	$7.8 (0.1) 0,0 $7.7
Available After Funding Operations	$40.5	$3.5	$21.8
RTA Capital & Debt Service RTA Funding of Service Board Capital Total Capital/Debt	$11.4 5,8 $17.2	$3.8 0,0 $3.8	($1.3) (1,3) ($2.6)
Change to Fund Balance	$23.3	$7.3	$19.2
Regional Recovery Ratio	49.3%	(0.9) pts.	(0.9) pts.
MEMO: Funding of Service Board Operations Service Board Baseline Operations: Revenues Expenses Deficits	$242.9 493.6 $250.7	($2.6) (3,3) ($5.9)	$3.2 (12.7) ($9.5)
Positive Budget Variance Less: Funded by Loan Less: Service Board Contributions	(5.9) 0.0 fO.2)	5.9 0.0 0.0	18.7 0.0 (1.4)
RTA Funding For Service Board Operations	$244.6	$0.0	$7.8

Capital and debt service was $3.8 million favorable to budget tfirough May. RTA capital was $2.7 million favorable primarily due to lower than budgeted spending for the PRT. Debt service is $1.1 million favorable because 1994 RTA bonds were issued later than budgeted. For 1993, this category was $2.6 million unfavorable because debt service and Service Board capital each were $1 .3 million unfavorable.

The Service Board baseline deficit through May was $5.9 million unfavorable to budget. Baseline revenues and expenses were $2.6 million unfavorable and $3.3 million unfavorable to budget, respectively, pnmarily due to the CTA. Compared to last year, the baseline deficit was $9.5 million unfavorable because revenues and expenses were $3.2 million favorable and $12.7 million unfavorable, respectively.

The region's recovery ratio through May was 49.3%. This ratio was 0.9 points unfavorable to budget and when compared to the recovery ratio for the same time penod last year.

Ridership

RTA Ridership - 3 Month Moving Average Deseasonailzed and Normalized (in millions)

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RIDERSHIP LEVELS

The CTA ended May with a decrease of 1 .3% from April's level. The CTA's ridership performance for the last several months would have been flat if the poor results from January were excluded.

Metra's ridership for May was up 1 .6%. Metra's monthly ridership level is now at its highest point in several years.

Pace's May ridership was down 0.4%. This decrease followed a 2.9% decline in April.

Note: Ridership levels are the result of actual monthly ridership being adjusted for seasonal patterns and for the number of weekdays, weekend days, and holidays occurring in each period.

Ridershipl

CTA Monthly System Ridership Deseasonalized & Normalized (in millions)

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Metra Monthly System Ridership Deseasonalized & Normalized (in millions)

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Pace Monthly System Ridership Deseasonalized & Normalized (In millions)

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CTA Performance

Monthly Results

Chicago Transit Authority

May 1994

(Dollars in Millions)

Revenue Expenses Operating Deficit Recovery Ratio

Passengers (in thousands) Vehicle Miles (in thousands)

May

1994

S31.6 64.7

$33.1 49.8%

May

1994

39,350 10,710

Favorable/(Unfavorable)To:

Budqet	1993
($0.9)	($0.6)
(0.5)	(1.1)
($1.4)	($1.7)
(1.1) pts	(1.1) pts
Hiqher/(Lower)	Than:
Budqet	1993

(370) (210)

(150) (190)

The CTA's operating deficit was unfavorable to budget for the fifth consecutive month. The unfavorable deficit vanance has averaged $1.0 million a month since January's high figure of $6.4 million, (see table below)

Deficit Vanance Versus Budget (in millions)

January February March Aenl May Year-to-Date

Revenues ($3.5) ($0.2) $0.0 ($0.4) ($0.9) ($5.0)

Expenses IZS) (0.5) (0.8) (0.7) (Q.5) (-SJ^

Deficit ($6.4) ($0.7) ($0.8) ($1.1) ($1.4) ($10.4)

The unfavorable year-to-date deficit vanance of $10.4 million was due to unfavorable vanances in both revenues and expenses.

Revenues were quite unfavorable in January due to school closings and the loss of discretionary trips. In February, revenues were not quite as unfavorable versus budget. In March, revenues were equal with budget, but were unfavorable again in April and May. Lower ridership versus budget has been the major contnbutor to lower faretx)x revenues, but a lower average fare than budget has also contributed to the negative vanance. (see table below)

Farebox Revenue Variance Versus Budget (in millions)

Vgri^nqe	Jangary	Febman/	March	Aoril	Mgy
Fare	$0.2	$0.5	($0.9)	($0.5)	($0.6)
Ridership	(3.8)	(0.6)	0.7	0.1	(0.2)
Farebox	($3.6)	($0.1)	($0.2)	($0.4)	($1.4)

CTA Performance!

Year-To-Date Results Chicago Transit Authority Five Months Ending May 31, 1994

(Dollars in Millions)

Farebox Revenue Reduced-Fare Reimbursement Other Revenue

Total Revenue

YTD 1994

$146.0 3.6

48

$154.4

Favorable/(Unfavorable)To: Budget 1993

Service Delivery	$253.5
Fuel/Power	14.2
Special Services	8.8
Administration	35.6
Provision for injury and Damages	13.9
Non-Departmental	(6.9)
Total Expenses	$319.1
Operating Deficit	$164.7
Recovery Ratio	48.7%
	YTD
	1994
Passengers (in thousands)	185,740
Vehicle Miles (in thousands)	53,030
Passenger Per Mile	3.5

($5.1) (0.1)

($5.0)

($6.1) 1.7 1.5 0.1 0.0

iZM

($5.4) ($10.4) (2.3) pts

($2.1) 0.5

0-3

($1.3)

$1.8 1.9 (0.6) (4.4) (2.5) (2.3) ($6.1)

($7.4)

(1.2) pts

Hlgher/fLower^ Than: Budget 1993

(4.830) (280) (0.1)

(1.180)

(970)

0.0

Expenses have been consistently unfavorable to budget through the first five months of 1 994. The snow and cold weather experienced in January, along with the delay in closing the Green Line, caused expenses to be $2.9 million unfavorable to budget in January. Over the last four months, expenses were $2.5 million unfavorable to budget. Thus, January accounted for over 50% of the year-to-date unfavorable expense variance.

Sen/ice Delivery expenses have been unfavorable to budget for the first five months of 1994. Hours wori<ed has been over budget, especially in January, due to additional labor required in dealing with the poor weather. The CTA expected to eliminate 394 positions when the Green Line closed. Unfortunately, there was a delay in eliminating these positions due to negotiations with the union on how to implement an incentive retirement program. Also, the Orange Line express bus service was budgeted to end in April, but will continue through July.

Fuel and power were both favorable to budget. The price per gallon on fuel has been 5C less than budget through the first five months of 1994. This favorable vanance may lessen over the coming months due to an increase in fuel prices.

The recovery ratio was 49.8% in May, which was 1.1 points less than budget. On a year-to-date basis, the recovery ratio was 48.7% or 2.3 points less than budget.

iMetra Performance

Revenue Expenses Operating Deficit Recovery Ratio

Passengers (in thousands) Revenue Miles (in thousands)

Montlily Results Metra May 1994 (Dollars in Millions)
May	Favorable/(Unfavorable) To:
1994	Budget	1993
$15.6	$0.7	$1.5
26.1	0.5	fO.6)
$10.5	$1.2	$0.9
60.4%	3.9 pts	4.5 pts
May	Hiqher/(Lower)	Than:
1994	Budget	1993
6,050 2,150	100 240	330 260

Metra's operating deficit for the month of May 1 994 was $1 .2 million favorable to budget. Revenues were $0.7 million favorable when compared to budget and were $1.5 million higher when compared to May 1993. Expenses for the month of May were $0.5 million favorable to budget and were $0.6 million higher than in May 1 993.

Revenues through May were $2.5 million favorable to budget. The favorable performance when compared to budget was primarily due to increased farebox revenues of $1 .6 million, lease revenues of $1.2 million and all other revenues of $0.2 million. Reduced fare reimbursements, however, were $0.5 million unfavorable when compared to the budget. Revenues increased by $4.4 million when compared to 1993. The major reasons for the increase from 1993 were higher ridership resulting in a farebox revenue increase of $2.0 million, lease revenue of $2.0 million, and all other revenue of $0.6 million. Reduced fare reimbursements were $0.2 million lower when compared to 1993.

Expenses through May were $1.4 million favorable to budget but were $4.4 million higher when compared to 1 993.

Operations expenses were $0.8 million favorable to budget and were only $1 .3 million higher when compared to 1993 year-to-date. Fuel costs through May were $0.8 million favorable when compared to budget and $0.7 million lower than 1993 year-to-date. Power costs were $0.6 million favorable when compared to the budget and were $0.4 million lower than 1 993 year-to-date.

Metra Performance!

Year-To-Date Results Metra Five Months Ending May 31,

(Dollars in Millions)

1994

	YTD 1994	Favorable/(Unfav(	arable) To:
	Budget	1993
Farebox Revenue	$62.9	$1.6	$2.0
Other Revenue	11.9	0.9	2,4
Total Revenue	$74.7	$2.5	$4.4
Operations	$48.5	$0.8	($1.3)
Maintenance	53.5	(1.5)	(3.6)
Administration	12.6	1.0	0.2
Fuel/Power	6.5	1.4	1.1
Claims	6.1	(1.1)	(0.4)
All Other	7,7	0.8	(0.4)
Total Expenses	$134.9	$1.4	($4.4)
Operating Deficit	$60.2	$3.9	($0.0)
Recovery Ratio	55.8%	2.4 pts	1 .5 pts
	YTD	Higher/(Lower)	Than:
	1994	Budget	1993
Passengers (in thousands)	29.670	40	830
Revenue Miles (in thousands)	10,180	230	350
Passengers Per Mile	2.9	(0.1)	0.0

In other cost areas, maintenance expenses were $1.5 million unfavorable to budget and increased $3.6 million versus 1993 on a year-to-date basis. The increase over the budget and 1993 is primarily due to the residual effects of snow removal costs incurred during January and February 1994. Administration and all other expenses were $1.8 million favorable to budget and were only $0.2 million higher than 1993. Claims expenses were $1.1 million unfavorable to budget and were $0.4 million higher than 1993. The primary reason for the unfavorable performance to both the budget and 1993 relates to claims expense at the NIRC.

The recovery ratio for May was 60.4%. This was 3.9 points favorable when compared to budget and was 4.5 points favorable to 1 993. On a year-to-date basis, the recovery ratio was 55.8% which was 2.4 points favorable to budget and was 1 .5 points higher when compared to 1 993.

10

Pace Performance

Monthly Results

Pace Suburban Bus

May 1994

(Dollars in Millions)

Revenue Expenses Operating Deficit

May 1994

$2.7

7.7

$5.0

Favorable/fUnfavorable)To: Budget 1993

($0.1)

0.5

$0.4

$0.0

(0-3) ($0.3)

Recovery Ratio

35.7%

1 .2 pts

(1.3) pts.

Passengers (in thousands) Vehicle Miles (in thousands)

May 1994

3,300 2.640

Higher/(Lower) Than: Budget 1993

140 (100)

110 20

Pace's recovery ratio for the month of May was 35.7% or 1 .2 points favorable to budget and 1 .3 points unfavorable compared to 1993. May's performance marked the fourth consecutive month since third quarter 1993 in which the recovery ratio exceeded 35.0%. The strong May performance also largely contributed to Pace exceeding its May year-to-date budgeted recovery ratio by 0.5 points, while falling 1 .9 points below prior year performance.

Total revenues through May were $13.8 million and equal to both budget and 1993 levels. Ridership continues to slightly exceed budgeted levels both in the month and year-to-date, despite the implementation of a fare increase in January, while down slightly from 1 993 year-to- date levels.

Total expenses through May were $39.6 million or 1 .5% favorable to budget. Despite the overall favorable expense budget variance, seven Pace operating divisions continue to experience expense budget overruns through May due in part to timing differences between actual spending and the calendarization of the budget. In addition, specific labor cost overmns resulting from overtime for operating alternative Green line service were incurred at the West Division. Pace staff plans to continue to monitor this unfavorable budget condition.

Insurance and claims costs remain unfavorable to budget as a result of a large liability insurance claim settlement in January. Pace is projecting this unfavorable variance to be reduced by yearend.

11

Pace Performance

Year-To-Date Results Pace Suburban Bus Five Months Ending May 31, 1994

(Doilars in Millions)

YTD 1994

Favorable/(Unfavorable)To: Budget 1993

Farebox Revenue' Reduced-Fare Reimbursement Other Revenue

Total Revenue

$12.1 0.7

LO

$13.8

($0.1) 0.0

OJL

$0.0

$0.0 0.0 0.0

$0.0

Operations Maintenance Non-Vehicle Maintenance Fuel Insurance and Claims Administration Total Expenses	$23.5 6.1 0.6 1.1 1.9 6.4 $39.6	$0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 (0.2) _Q2 $0.6	($1.2) (0.7) (0.1) 0.1 0.1 (0,4) ($2.2)
Operating Deficit	$25.8	$0.6	($2.2)
Recovery Ratio	34.9%	0.5 pts.	(1 .9) pts.
	YTD 1994	Hiqher/(Lower) Bu^iget	Thsn: 1993
Passengers (in thousands) Vehicle Miles (in thousands) Passengers Per Mile	15,970 13,200 1.2	580 0 (0.0)	(80) 150 (0.0)

'Includes local share

Compared to 1993, total expenses were $2.2 million unfavorable or 5.8% higher than the prior year period. Operations expense is $1.2 million or 5.5% higher largely due to the addition of Southwest Rapid Transit service and the special services program. Maintenance and non-vehicle maintenance costs combined were $0.8 million or 12.0% higher due to an increase in matenals/supply usage and vehicle repair expense dunng the first five months of 1994.

Administration expenses were $0.4 million unfavorable or 6.7% higher, partly due to increased expenditures for professional services and the lease and rental cost for the Fox Valley facility.

12

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